What to Expect From Biden

Biden Union


The 2024 State of the Union address comes at a pivotal — even perilous — moment for President Joe Biden. He has not been actively campaigning, reflecting a selection cycle in which he’s running all but unopposed for the Democratic nomination, despite losing a few delegates in American Samoa this week.

Biden is doing few unscripted events, and when he does show up in informal public appearances — going on late night shows, for example — he’s frequently protested by activists demanding a cease to hostilities in Gaza. 

But if the stakes of this year’s State of the Union seem high, some of the pessimism surrounding Biden’s reelection bid seems to be lifting. The economy is humming, the stock market is on a rocket ride, and the GOP nominating process has revealed significant fractures in the Republican base. 

This week, as Super Tuesday laid all doubts about an expected rematch against former President Donald Trump to rest, a new wave of polling is looking favorable to the president, showing a modest Biden surge, and a small national lead for the Democrat. 

As he prepared to speak Thursday night, Americans were looking for reassurance on six key issues, explored below:

FITNESS TO SERVE

Biden is only three years older than Republican rival Trump, and both men sound less fluent in English than they did four years ago, with Biden recently invoking the long-dead François Mitterrand as if he were still president of France, and Trump frequently mixing up Obama for Biden or referring to Nikki Haley as if she were Nancy Pelosi. 

Fairly or not, the age questions surrounding Biden have become central to the discussion of his presidency as his gait has stiffened and he increasingly tails off in the middle of a train of thought.

The bar for Biden during the State of the Union is basically on the floor — meaning just getting through the lengthy teleprompted speech without incident will be perceived as a significant victory. But any gaffes that seem age-related could also drive yet-another news cycle raising questions about the octogenarian’s fitness to serve.

DEFENDING DEMOCRACY

Biden has cast himself as a reluctant warrior in his bid for re-election, insisting that he sees Trump as a unique — and perhaps mortal — threat to the American experiment and the “sacred cause” of democracy. Trump’s election denial, as well as his authoritarian tendencies and fascistic rhetoric, have raised legitimate concerns that if he regains the White House he’ll only ever leave in a casket. Biden has campaigned openly in these terms warning that Trump is “willing to sacrifice our democracy [to] put himself in power.” 

In excerpts of his State of the Union speech provided to the press, Biden talks about the need to “embrace freedom and democracy” to “respect everyone” and to “give hate no safe harbor.” Referring indirectly to his rival, Biden’s remarks add: “Some other people my age see a different story: an American story of resentment, revenge, and retribution. That’s not me.”

REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM

Abortion and reproductive freedom are top-of-mind concerns in 2024 as red state legislators and court justices continue to not only curb access to legal abortion care, but threaten to criminalize even routine IVF practices, as the Alabama Supreme Court did in February.

Biden’s prepared remarks have him speaking to the voting prowess of women who have keyed Democratic election victories on reproductive rights in the Dobbs era. “Clearly those bragging about overturning Roe v. Wade have no clue about the power of women in America,” the remarks state. “But…they will find out again in 2024.” Biden will vow to sign any bill from Congress to “restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again.”

GAZA & GEN Z

Israel’s siege of Gaza — a retaliation for the horrific attacks of October 7 that killed nearly 1,200 — has now stretched on five months, killing an estimated 30,000 Palestinians, displacing nearly 80 percent of the strip’s residents, and put 1 in 4 Gazans on the brink of starvation. 

In advance of the president’s speech, the White House previewed a Biden military order to construct a temporary port on the Gaza coast intended to receive emergency shipments of food, water and shelter materials.

Biden has been taking it on the chin from activist Democrats who are demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. This dissent has even showed up in election results as significant minorities of Democratic voters have been casting ballots for “uncommitted,” as a way to register their disapproval of the president’s refusal to take a tougher stance toward Israel. (As a candidate building a warchest for a campaign that’s expected to set new records for political ad spending, Biden has tread carefully on Gaza, as many of the party’s top donors are also staunch supporters of Israel.)

Some progressive discontent on Gaza has hinged on a misconception that Trump might somehow pursue a more balanced policy. But Trump, who has a long record of backing Israel’s hawkish prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, came out militantly on the side of Israel in recent days, insisting of Gaza, ”You’ve got to finish the problem.” 

THE BORDER

Nothing is animating the far right quite so much as the immigration crisis at the southern border, with the governor of Texas pushing a constitutional showdown over using deadly razor wire to deter border crossers, many of whom have legitimate asylum claims. 

For Biden, who pursued a center-right compromise on immigration, only to have Republicans pull the rug on their own bill, the issue remains thorny. Yet the State of the Union provides a rare chance for the president to present himself publicly as open to reform, while casting Republicans as extremists who’d rather keep a campaign issue on the table for Trump than reach across the aisle to cut a deal.

THE ECONOMY

Americans have been in a years-long funk about the economy — furious about inflated prices at the grocery store and fast food joints, even as jobs remained plentiful and the economy defied predictions of a recession. But there are signs that the so-called “vibescession” is lifting, and that the sour headwinds of consumer sentiment that Biden has faced for much of his term are reversing.

In recent months the economy has been on a tear. The S&P 500 stock market index has risen nearly 30 percent in the last year — lifting retirement accounts out of the doldrums. The unemployment rate has now held below four percent for the longest stretch since the 1960s, and inflation has finally dropped to levels where the Federal Reserve appears ready to declare victory — and begin cutting interest rates.

Trending

Biden will likely tout record investments in green energy as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, as well as spending on roads and bridges now rolling out as a consequence of the bipartisan infrastructure package he passed in 2021.

In his prepared remarks, Biden speaks of America coming through one of the “toughest periods in our nation’s history” and American communities quietly “writing the greatest comeback story never told.” Biden is slated to speak of a new era of “American possibilities” designed to ensure that “everyone has a fair shot and we leave no one behind.”



Source link: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/state-of-the-union-2024-biden-trump-1234983383/

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